Video
April 19, 2024
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April 19, 2024
Uncertainty Is the Prevailing Theme on Wall Street
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Certainty vs. uncertainty. Uncertainty right now is the prevailing theme on Wall Street. With human nature, uncertainty leads to conservative actions. Wall Street never wants to be caught on the wrong side of the tracks. Right now, they are standing far away so as not to be hit by the potential of an oncoming train.
Let's talk about some of the uncertainty in the marketplace impacting the decisions on Wall Street right now:
1) Inflation. Is it stable or is it going up? The latest CPI report shows it may be going up, or at least not coming down like they want it to. It's a long way from their 2% target.
2) Jobs. Job growth continues to move forward month after month. Where are they all coming from? Are they good jobs? Most of them are. A lot of them are government. Lots are part-time, and many are in the service sector.
3) Global instability. This is another uncertainty. Does anyone really know how the various conflicts will play out or how long they will last? Will gas prices go up because of all the problems in the world?
4) Presidential election. Will either candidate actually be running for president in November? The divide in the U.S. can be polarizing. Which candidate provides more stability?
There are many other uncertainties out there that will just take time to unfold.
We seem to be in a hurry-up-and-wait situation that will likely take months before Wall Street feels comfortable making concrete decisions. In the meantime, they will likely overreact, run for cover, and then peek their head around the corner to see if the train is coming or if it's left the station.
Uncertainty, for the most part, leads to inaction and or just freezing in place.
That said, rates will likely remain at these elevated levels probably through the end of 2024 and not improve until after the November election.
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