Video
June 7, 2024
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June 7, 2024
It’s Hard to Take These Job Reports Seriously!
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The HUGE discrepancies in the jobs data month over month are just incredibly hard to reconcile! Nothing jives.
The Fed has a “dual mandate.” They are tasked with achieving maximum employment and keeping prices stable. Inflation data is reliable. It was reported last week, and it was flat.
This week was jobs data, and there were big discrepancies between the two reports. The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the change in the U.S. private sector from ACTUAL payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. businesses. It’s ACTUAL data and much easier to rely upon. The downside to the report is it does not capture the government sector for job growth and job loss.
The BLS report, on the other hand, appears to be so unreliable it’s hard to take seriously, and yet, this is the report that Wall Street relies upon to trade!
What makes it so unreliable? A lot of the data is gathered by surveys. The survey responses have been declining. It could be respondents are unwilling to participate or hesitant to provide all the requested information. Thus, the data quality is suspect.
So, the government has to make assumptions and observations from the data and impute the results, which can vary significantly every single month.
There are two components to the BLS report: a Business Survey and Household Survey. The Household Survey showed 408,000 job LOSSES while the very imputed Business Survey showed 272,000 NEW JOBS! The “headline” number reported 272,000 new jobs!
All that said, we can’t do a whole heck of a lot about it. Wall Street is not likely going to go against what the government reports so it turns into a waiting game once again.
Back to mortgage rates... we’re going sideways, and be prepared for this to be the norm for the next 3 months. Who knows what the final countdown to the election will bring?
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